In September 2023, the IEA updated its projections for the NZE scenario in the Net Zero Roadmap. In particular, it leads to an update of the “clean vs fossil” financing ratios (already presented in the World Energy Outlook of 2022):
“Global investment in clean energy is set to outstrip investment in fossil energy by a factor of 1.8 to 1 in 2023. This ratio rises to 10 to 1 in 2030 in the NZE Scenario, when around USD 2.5 trillion is invested in clean electricity and low-emissions fuels and around USD 1.8 trillion in energy efficiency and end-uses, while investment in fossil fuel supply falls to around USD 0.4 trillion.” (Net Zero Roadmap update, page 162).
Most of the supply part (USD 2.5 trillion) is dedicated to power (see World Energy Outlook 2023, Figure 1.21, page 52). These numbers give us a ratio of 6:1 for the energy supply, mostly for “clean electricity”. That is why we advocate that for each dollar allocated to fossil fuels, six dollars should be allocated to their alternatives in sustainable power supply.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) published a report in October 2022 that synthesized seven climate scenarios from the IPCC, NGFS and IEA, and extracted a trend of financing ratios for energy supply investments. BNEF emphasized the need to reach a “clean vs fossil” supply financing ratio of 4:1 by 2030. However, it is worth noting that the 4:1 ratio is framed by BNEF itself in its reports as a minimum (see figure below).
This conservative approach could lead financial institutions to underestimate the financing needs for sustainable power supply. Financial institutions should not base their ambitions on this 4:1 objective but instead consider the average (7:1) or median (6.2:1) values as the real target.

(Source : BNEF)
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